About Risks

Posted: August 6, 2011 in Spatial data, This and That
Tags: , , ,

I’m looking for the approaches for the environmental risks estimation at the given area. I have my own ideas for the current task, but it is always interesting to know what other people do.

Today I acquainted myself with a master thesis on a subject of spatial analysis of epidemiology of some disease. I was curious because it was about risk mapping. But I was totally disappointed. The guy didn’t mention the definition for the “risk” term he used and it is quite obvious why. Instead of the risk assessment (which implies monetary estimation of the probability of undesired event) he estimated the probability of contracting disease… The thesis is good actually, but the guy did much lesser job than one should when he studies risks.

The same shit exists in Russian legislation. It defines “environmental risk” only as s probability of event that harms environment. So for example if I’m studying risks of the fire at illegal dumps then I can assess just a probability of such events at the given region and don’t bother myself with possible damage estimation…

Remember: [Risk] = [Probability] * [Damage]. If you do not estimate damage – you are calculating something else, so name it accordingly.

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